Home Run Derby: 2010
Posted by homerunheyer on July 12th, 2010
The 25th annual Homer Run Derby is taking place in Angels Stadium in Anaheim. Last year Prince Fielder took home the derby trophy. This year Fielder will not be back to defend his title. There will be five new derby contestants this year, it is time for a fresh young batch of players to liven things up a bit. Here are my predictions for how everyone will do tonight, starting from least favorite.
8. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks: Young is having a pretty good year for him this season. Young’s average is higher than usual but still low, he is hitting .266. In the past Young would not even be considered to participate in the home run derby. This year a lot of new players are getting a shot because home run totals are a lot lower than in recent years. Young has 15 home runs and the lowest slugging percentage out of all the derby participants -.469. Young is a right-handed batter, which also puts him at a disadvantage at Angel Stadium because it is deeper in left-center field than right-center by 17 feet. I do not see Young hitting more than three home runs.
7. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins: Ramirez is entering the derby with the least amount of home runs out of everyone participating. Ramirez has 13 home runs and is slugging .485. Ramirez is having an average year so far. Ramirez is on pace to have about the same number as last season except his average is down 41 points. Ramirez is not generally know as a power hitter, the most home runs he had in one season was 33 back in 2008. Ramirez is also at a disadvantage as a right-handed batter. I think Ramirez will hit about four home runs.
6. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays: Wells is having somewhat of a bounce-back year power wise. Wells is another player who is generally not considered a power hitter, actually most of the participants aren’t really aren’t considered power hitters. Wells has never hit more than 33 home runs and that came way back in 2003. This season Wells has 19 home runs and is on pace to have the most home runs in his career for one season. With a slugging percentage of .524 Wells will hit some home runs in this derby, but not enough. As another right-handed batter in Anaheim I say Wells will hit around six home runs. Watch out though! There is usually a sleeper in these derbies. From 2003-2005 sleepers have won the home run derby- Garret Anderson, Miguel Tejada, and Bobby Abreu. In 2006-2007 sleepers made it to the finals, but lost- David Wright, Alex Rios. Wells may be one of the sleepers in this home run derby.
5. Nick Swisher, New York Yankees: Swisher is having his best season in the majors this year. Swisher made his first all-star team this year in the final vote. Swisher is on pace to hit 30 home runs and bat around .300. Swisher never has hit over .262 in a season. This season Swisher is hitting .298 with 15 home runs and a .524 slugging percentage. Swisher definitely has the personality for a home run derby and he is a switch hitter. Swisher will probably bat from the left side to give him a shorter distance. Even though his numbers are almost the same as Wells’s numbers, I think Swisher will hit a few more home runs because he will be batting lefty. Swisher can also be another sleeper as well.
4. Matt Holliday, St.Louis Cardinals: Holliday is the first person on this list that played in a previous home run derby. Back in 2007 Holliday almost made it to the finals only falling one home run short. Holliday is not really considered a genuine power hitter either. Holliday averages about 25 home runs a season. This season he is on pace to hit about 30, with 16 home runs at the halfway mark. Holliday is slugging .529, which isn’t that much better than the previous four players on the list. Holliday is also a right-handed batter which doesn’t help, but since he has some experience over the other guys, he may know how to pace himself better. Holliday’s experience alone will advance him on to the next round.
3. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox: Ortiz is back in the home run derby for his fourth time. Ortiz hasn’t played in a derby since 2006, which was his last huge home run season. Ortiz is back this season. He has 18 home runs and is slugging .562. If this were two years ago, Ortiz would not be in the home run derby. By today’s standard’s, post-steroid era, Ortiz is a power hitter once again. Ortiz has more experience over everyone in the derby this year. Ortiz is actually 17 home runs away from having the most home runs in the derby’s combined which is now held by Ken Griffey Jr. I think Ortiz will come close to making it to the finals. Ortiz is a lefty and has the most power out of everyone. Ortiz’s only drawback is his build, Ortiz is so big that if he hits a lot of home runs in one round he will be drained. Ortiz’s only chance of making it to the finals is if he hits most of his home runs in the first round than just ride that into the finals. It will be around 77 degrees at the time of the derby, at least the heat will not be a factor, which will help Ortiz. I’m sticking with my health approach though which makes Ortiz finish in third because there are two guys who have almost just as much power who are in a lot better shape.
2. Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers: Hart is having a huge power year out of nowhere. Move over Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, Hart is the big bat in the Brewers lineup this season. Hart has the third most home runs in the league this season with 21. Hart never hit more than 24 home runs in a season, he is almost past that now! Hart is also slugging .569, which is fourth most in the National League. Hart is a right handed batter, but in his case i don’t think that matters too much. This guy can hit home runs way further than that and is by in the best shape combined with power in the derby. There is one guy that stands in Hart’s way.
1. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: Cabrera is the odds on favorite to win this year’s home run derby. Cabrera is hitting for a massive slugging percentage of .651 this season. Cabrera is now considered the favorite to win most valuable player this season since Robinson Cano has come back to earth a little of late. Cabrera also has the most home runs out of everyone in the derby with 22 so far. Cabrera played in one home run derby before back in 2006 and fell three home runs short of making it to the finals. With Cabrera’s experience and power he should definitely win the home run derby.
It is hard to determine who will win a home run derby. Cabrera, Hart, Ortiz and Holliday can all win the derby. The other four hitters are less likely to win, but just look back to 2005 when Abreu won. Anybody can win the derby.
(mlb.com)
By Eric Heyer of Sports Fan Blog Network
